LPA outside PAR now has high chance of developing into tropical depression

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Unlike the newly formed low pressure area inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, the LPA being monitored outside PAR is expected to soon become a tropical depression

MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau was already monitoring two low pressure areas on Friday, October 31, as a new LPA formed inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the afternoon. The first LPA remains outside PAR.

As of 8 pm on Friday, the new LPA was located 180 kilometers west of Coron, Palawan, embedded along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ).

The LPA is unlikely to develop into a tropical depression within 24 hours, and it is moving away from the country.

But the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is bringing scattered rain and thunderstorms to Palawan. The rain can be moderate to at times heavy.

Meanwhile, the LPA outside PAR was last spotted 1,560 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao at 8 pm on Friday, also embedded along the ITCZ.

By late Friday evening, the LPA’s likelihood of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours had already been upgraded from medium to high.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Benison Estareja previously said the LPA could enter PAR either as a tropical depression or as a tropical storm as early as Sunday, November 2. It would be given the local name Tino.

Estareja said the potential Tino might initially stay east of the Caraga region, then possibly cross the Visayas-Southern Luzon area between Tuesday, November 4, and Thursday, November 6.

The forecast for the potential tropical cyclone can still change in the coming days.

PAGASA expects two or three tropical cyclones to form within or enter PAR in November.

Other weather systems

From Friday evening to early Saturday, November 1, the shear line is bringing scattered rain and isolated thunderstorms to Cagayan, while the northeast monsoon or amihan may cause isolated light rain in Batanes.

Rainfall from the ITCZ has eased, with just isolated rain showers or thunderstorms possible in the rest of Mimaropa, Bicol, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

Remaining areas in Luzon have generally fair weather, but there may be localized thunderstorms.

The weather bureau announced the start of the northeast monsoon season last Monday, October 27. – Rappler.com