Lessons from Sara’s numbers

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There are important lessons from the numbers in the recent polls showing increased trust levels for Sara Duterte.

She hasn’t done much since she resigned the DepEd portfolio. Yet, her latest trust and satisfaction ratings show that she remains the most trusted high-ranking official in the Philippines — Mary Grace Piattos, notwithstanding.

According to the Social Weather Stations (SWS) Q4 2025 (released early February 2026), her net satisfaction rating rose to +28 (54 percent satisfied, 26 percent dissatisfied), up from +22 in September 2025.

OCTA Research Q4 2025 (released February 2026) showed her trust rating increased from 51 percent to 53 percent, while her performance rating rose from 49 percent to 54 percent.

In the Pulse Asia December 2025 survey, she maintained a majority trust rating of 54 percent and an approval rating of 56 percent, significantly higher than BBM.

Indeed, BBM’s net trust rating dropped to -3 in late 2025. Public disapproval is highest in Mindanao (-37 net trust) and among the poorest Filipinos, who were most affected by the perceived failure of flood infrastructure.

The data reveals younger demographics (ages 18–24 and 25–34) like Sara. Despite controversies and periods of inactivity, her satisfaction ratings improved among the 18–24 age group in late 2025.

There are those who say that for many young people, she represents a continuation of her father’s brand of “decisive” leadership, a sharp contrast to BBM’s extremely relaxed style.

Credit her father for making Pinoys believe he is a “decisive” leader, shoot now and ask questions later. Many Filipinos, weary of our politics that produce little good for the people, want a leadership that upsets the status quo, hoping that will deliver tangible benefits to them.

Unfortunately, BBM’s type of leadership is anything but decisive. The crisis he faced with the corruption scandal gave him a chance to show what he can do. He flubbed it.

BBM promised a “big fish” would be in jail by Christmas 2025, but the arrests have been limited to lower-level figures or those no longer in power, such as former  senator Bong Revilla. Current political allies like former speaker Martin Romualdez and Cabinet members, including the former DPWH secretary appear safe, leading to a perception that BBM is protecting his circle.

People want immediate relief from the pains of corruption and from the government’s inability to deliver proper health and other services. They are banking on the Duterte genes in Sara to deliver all that and never mind the collateral damage for now.

So, it is pretty much all about name recall and symbolic identity than anything else when pollsters ask people who they trust. It helps Sara that she is seen, like her father, as one of them rather than of the elite.

Younger voters’ higher trust in her compared to other officials (like Speaker Martin Romualdez or BBM) indicates a rejection of traditional “polished” politicians in favor of what they perceive as a more “sincere” figure, regardless of the noise surrounding her impeachment charges.

It helps Sara that her trust remains nearly universal in Mindanao (up to 96 percent in some polls). Her satisfaction ratings saw a rebound in urban areas toward the end of 2025, suggesting she is regaining ground lost during earlier budget controversies.

Best of all for Sara, she distanced herself from the Cabinet before the scandal erupted. By “bolting out” of the administration, she avoided direct association with the DPWH’s failures for which BBM must now take full responsibility. Never mind that ghost flood control projects started with her father.

Here, as it is in the US, it is about so-called “authenticity.” Trump and Duterte supporters think profanity and blunt speech are signs of sincerity and authenticity. It signals that the leader is “one of them” and not of the “corrupt elite.”

There is also this overwhelming desire for decisive action.Here,  as in the US, supporters of Trump and the Dutertes often prioritize results over rules. In contexts of perceived crisis (e.g., crime, drugs or economic instability), a leader’s disregard for due process is seen not as a flaw, but as determination and “political will.”

Psychological research suggests that when people feel a high sense of threat or insecurity, they are more likely to support authoritarian leaders who promise order and protection, even at the cost of personal freedoms.

That explains why the extra judicial killings of the Duterte era receive praises from people who say their neighborhood became safe because of it. It also explains why Trump’s move of demonizing “pet-eating” migrants and blaming them for peace and order problems, resonated with voters.

Here in the Philippines, many Duterte supporters exhibit “democratic ambivalence” — a frustration with the failures of “liberal democracy” to improve their lives, leading them to a more “paternalistic” leader who acts swiftly.

For the Liberals in the Philippines and the Democrats in the US, how do they prepare to win back power?

Well, economic development issues are great but not enough to win elections. They need someone who can rally the masses like Trump or Duterte, but are better human beings.

They would ideally need someone who truly went up from poverty. They are tired of those identified with the economic elite.

BBM, as he is today, can be seen as a lame duck, unable to even endorse a successor.

The DILG Secretary keeps on dropping hints of wanting to run for President. He looks too smooth to be trusted by the masa. His Ombudsman brother might be better because he has that masa Duterte look and he speaks as ominously and as gruffly as Duterte does. But even he must deliver first on a broken promise of sending corrupt officials to jail.

As for the rest of us, we should start praying that the next President will be better than anyone who seems interested now.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco