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MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Sara Duterte continues to lead former Vice President Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race, but the Naga City mayor has significantly narrowed the gap and remains competitive in key regions.
In the Pulse Asia survey conducted from May 3 to 7, 2026, Stratbase Group’s first commissioned poll on the 2028 elections, 1,500 respondents were interviewed, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.
Robredo garnered 41% support nationwide in a head-to-head matchup, while Duterte led with 51%. Eight percent were undecided or refused to answer.
Despite Duterte’s lead, four in 10 Filipinos (40%) said they would vote for Robredo in a two-way race, showing sustained national competitiveness.
Robredo also remains strongest in Balance Luzon, where she leads Duterte 55% to 33%, and has neutralized Duterte’s advantage in the National Capital Region, where both are in a statistical dead heat at 48% to 46%.
Duterte retains a slim edge in the Visayas (50% to 46%), while maintaining a dominant lead in Mindanao (91% to 7%).
Stratbase Group founder Prof. Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit said Duterte’s national advantage is largely driven by her exceptionally strong support in Mindanao, but noted that such levels are historically difficult to sustain throughout a national campaign.
He added that Robredo’s performance suggests a potential pathway for a competitive opposition, particularly if support is consolidated and undecided voters are won over.
“Historically, no presidential candidate sustains numbers as high as 91 percent throughout an entire national campaign,” Manhit said.
“What this survey also underscores is the importance of building a solid and united opposition. The presidential race two-way contest to win an absolute majority mandate for the Presidency,” he added.
Tulfo leads vice presidential race
In the vice presidential contest, Sen. Erwin Tulfo emerges as a frontrunner, with 46% of Filipinos saying they would vote for him in a two-way matchup against Sen. Robinhood Padilla, who got 38%.
Tulfo also performs strongly across regions, leading in NCR (54%), Balance Luzon (52%), and the Visayas (63%), while maintaining strong appeal among Class E voters (51%).
In another matchup, Tulfo remains highly competitive against Sen. Bong Go, who leads with 47% versus Tulfo’s 42%. Go’s advantage is driven largely by Mindanao, while Tulfo leads in Balance Luzon (52% to 30%) and the Visayas (49% to 46%).
Overall, Tulfo registered the highest trust rating among surveyed political figures at 63%, ahead of Go (57%), Robredo (53%), Padilla (46%) and Davao City Vice Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte (37%).
Manhit said Tulfo’s numbers suggest strong name recall and resonance, adding that a unified opposition or reform-oriented coalition could still consolidate votes into a competitive national ticket.
High early voter engagement
The survey also found unusually high early interest in the 2028 elections, with 83% of respondents saying they are interested in the polls and 61% describing themselves as “truly interested.”
Engagement was especially high among Class E voters (92%), as well as in the Visayas (90%) and Mindanao (96%). Only 7% said they were disinterested, while 9% were undecided about their level of interest.
Other factors influencing voter behavior
The internet remains the top source of news for Filipinos at 83%, followed by television at 64%. Family and relatives (31%), radio (27%) and newspapers (3%) follow behind.
Manhit said the findings show that the 2028 campaign will be heavily shaped online, while traditional media and personal networks will still play an important role in reaching broader voter segments.
“The battle for public opinion in 2028 will be fought largely online,” he said, adding that candidates who fail to engage digitally risk losing relevance among younger voters.
He also said that multi-platform communication remains essential for building a national constituency across regions and social groups.
