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SHARES in Caktiong-led Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) fell last week despite the company reporting higher full-year attributable net income for 2024.

Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed that JFC was the fifth most actively traded stock by value last week, with a total of 1.78 million shares worth P1.25 billion traded from March 14 to 21. 

The food giant’s shares closed at P238 each on Friday, significantly lower than the P260 finish on March 14, marking an 8.5% week-on-week decline.

The stock has also dropped 11.5% from its P269 price at the last trading day of 2024.

Luis A. Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., said in a Viber message that the decline may be attributed to the company’s weaker-than-expected performance in the last quarter of 2024. 

“Despite earnings posting relatively strong growth for fiscal year 2024, the fourth quarter of 2024, on the other hand, showed weakness with lower margins and weaker performance; missing out on expectations and targets, which probably led to dampening of investor sentiment,” he said.

In a disclosure to the local bourse, JFC reported an attributable net income of P1.85 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024, down 4.8% from P1.94 billion in the same period of 2023.

The company attributed the decline to net losses from certain joint ventures.

Meanwhile, consolidated revenues rose 10.5% to P73.7 billion in the final three months of 2024.

Despite the fourth-quarter decline, JFC’s attributable net income for full-year 2024 grew 17.7% to P10.32 billion from P8.77 billion in 2023, according to its latest annual report.

Consolidated revenues also increased by 10.6% to P269.94 billion last year.

Timson Securities, Inc. Equity Research Analyst Juan Alfonso G. Teodoro, however, said the stock’s decline may have been driven by selling pressure as investors took profits following last month’s approval of JFC’s request to lift foreign ownership limits.

In February, JFC disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission had approved its amendment to remove the 40% cap on foreign-owned shares, allowing greater international investor participation. 

“On a technical and price action standpoint, JFC was trading within the P251-P268 range after the 10% surge following news of the foreign ownership limit removal. But the P251-P250 support level has already been breached, with Thursday’s close at P248,” Mr. Limlingan said, adding that the stock “might decline further.” 

JFC plans to allocate P18 billion to P21 billion in capital expenditures to open up to 800 stores globally in 2025.

Mr. Teodoro said the company’s aggressive expansion strategy could bolster investor confidence and sustain a positive outlook for the stock in the coming weeks.

However, he also noted potential concerns.

“Some investors may also be wary of capital spending and profitability risks, such as rising labor costs, raw material prices, and logistical expenses,” he said.

“New targets and company guidance always sound good, but if the stock price declines despite these, then it’s a different story,” Mr. Limlingan added.

For the first quarter of 2025, both analysts remain optimistic about JFC’s continued growth, citing strong financial performance and improving economic conditions.

Mr. Limlingan projected approximately 15% year-on-year revenue growth and 10% net income growth, estimating revenues at P70 billion and net income at P2.98 billion.

Mr. Teodoro, meanwhile, forecasted first-quarter earnings at approximately P2.06 billion.

For full-year 2025, Mr. Limlingan projected revenue growth of about 9% and net income growth of 17% year-on-year, reaching approximately P294 billion and P12 billion, respectively.

“If investor sentiment remains cautious, JFC might test lower support levels around P225-P230, with resistance at around P250,” Mr. Teodoro said.

Mr. Limlingan identified immediate support at P236, stronger support at P232, and resistance at P260. — Matthew Miguel L. Castillo