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Japan and the United Kingdom (UK) have signaled concerns over a proposed measure in the Philippines that would impose a ban on the country’s export of raw minerals, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
In a statement on its website, the WTO said the country’s proposed “export restrictions on minerals in their raw form” was one of the four new trade concerns on the agenda of the Council for Trade in Goods’ (CTG) meeting on April 9 and 10.
It noted that Japan and the UK “raised concerns regarding a bill in the Senate of the Philippines which they said would impose export restrictions on raw minerals.”
Under the proposed meeting agenda dated April 4, Japan specifically requested a dialogue on this concern. The WTO did not disclose other details.
The measure in question is Senate Bill (SB) No. 2826, or the Enhanced Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Metallic Mining Act, which was approved on third and final reading by the Senate on Feb. 3, 2025.
The bill, which is a priority of the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC), is seeking to modernize the country’s mining fiscal regime.
Specifically, it proposes a five-tier margin-based royalty system and a windfall profit system for the mining industry as a boon for the development of local industries.
Among its provisions is the implementation of a ban on exporting locally extracted raw minerals.
The ban will take effect five years after the bill’s enactment.
The five-year period, according to Senate President Francis "Chiz" Escudero, is meant to provide mining operators the time to establish processing plants and downstream industries.
Escudero, who introduced the proposed ban in the bill, said this will shift the industry’s agenda from exporting raw minerals to developing processing capabilities.
“This will result in added value for our minerals-related exports, provide a much-needed boost to our economy, and generate employment for our people,” he said in February.
The minerals being considered for export ban include gold, copper, iron, and nickel.
The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA), the country’s largest group of nickel mining companies, said a ban on raw minerals threatens the growth and competitiveness of the mining industry.
The group is expecting small mines to face the brunt of this ban, alongside the reduction of jobs, taxes, government revenues, and support for host communities and indigenous peoples (IPs).
PNIA President Dante Bravo earlier stressed that the government should instead focus on resolving pressing issues in regulatory and permitting processes.
The Philippines is the world’s second-largest supplier of nickel ore, with the majority of its imports going to China. The industry produced 35.14 million metric tons (MT) of nickel ore in 2023.
Global trade faces downturn
In another development, the WTO estimates that global trade is poised to decline due to current uncertainties in trade, particularly by the tariffs imposed by the United States (US).
The WTO, which oversees the global rules of trade between nations, said the volume of world merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2 percent in 2025. This is three-percent lower than it would have been without the recent policy shifts.
“This marks a notable reversal from forecasts earlier this year, when WTO economists anticipated continued trade expansion, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions,” WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa said.
Ossa pointed out that there are present risks that could lead to a further decline in international trade.
He cited the lifting of the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US, as well as the “potential for a broader spillover of trade policy uncertainty.”
Specifically, the reciprocal tariffs, which are imposed on top of the baseline 10-percent tariffs, would reduce global merchandise trade growth by 0.6 percent. Trade policy uncertainties could cut this by a further 0.8 percent.
In total, these risks would lead to a 1.5-percent decline in world merchandise trade volume.
Services trade, while not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to face significant headwinds.
Ossa noted that the decline in goods trade will likely reduce demand for services such as transport and logistics. He said broader uncertainty is likely to dampen discretionary spending on travel and investment-related services.
As a result, services, which accounted for 26.4 percent of global trade based on balance of payments (BOP) statistics, are now forecast to grow by four percent in 2025, below the initial projection of 5.1 percent.
The WTO also estimates that the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.2 percent this year, a 0.6-percent decline from the initial prediction.
“While reciprocal tariffs alone would have a limited effect on global GDP, a wider spread of trade policy uncertainty could nearly double the projected GDP loss, bringing it to 1.3 percentage points (ppts) below the baseline scenario,” it said.
The largest impact of economic slowdown will be felt in North America, where growth is expected to ease by 1.6 percent, followed by Asia (0.4 percent), and South and Central America and the Caribbean (0.2 percent).
“The enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
