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When the United States (US) sneezes tariffs, the world—including the Philippines—may catch a cold in the form of higher borrowing rates, making debt accumulation to fund ballooning public expenditures and the wider budget deficit more expensive.
On the sidelines of the 20th Philippine Dealing System (PDS) Annual Awards Night on Friday, April 4, National Treasurer Sharon P. Almanza told reporters that while it remains to be seen how US President Donald Trump's reciprocal and baseline tariffs would impact debt markets, more expensive imports would stoke US inflation.
Almanza noted that if the inflationary impact of these tariffs slows down US economic growth, the global economy would likely follow suit.
A combination of high inflation and slow economic growth may lead to higher borrowing rates in the US, which could then spill over globally.
Days after Trump announced the 17-percent reciprocal tariffs on Philippine exports to the US, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) is eyeing to raise ₱25 billion from short-dated T-bills and ₱30 billion from reissued seven-year bonds this week.
As for offshore commercial borrowings, Almanza later told Manila Bulletin that the Philippines is unlikely to issue more global bonds in the near term, unless the Marcos administration's economic team decides to further raise the budget deficit cap.
She noted that the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) will review the fiscal gap during the midyear.
"Hopefully, there will be no revision to the deficit," she said.
For 2025, the Marcos administration is raising its budget deficit ceiling to ₱1.54 trillion—the widest in three years, in terms of amount.
Almanza said the BTr has programmed to raise $3.5 billion from global bonds this year, of which $3.3 billion were already covered by the triple-tranche bond issuance last January.
As such, any global bond sale for the rest of the year may involve raising only $200 million, she noted.
The government plans to borrow a gross amount of ₱2.55 trillion this year, of which ₱507.4 billion will come from external sources.
Global bonds and other inflows would account for ₱197.8 billion in foreign borrowings this year, while the rest shall be sourced from program and project loans extended by multilateral lenders and bilateral development partners.
Separately, Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) President Ramon S. Monzon told reporters on the sidelines of the PDS event that besides the previously announced listing on the PSE of Cebu-based fuel distributor Top Line Business Development and possibly of Megawide Construction Corp.'s preferred shares, there are no other upcoming listings on the stock market.
"Wala pa. Binibira tayo ni Trump, eh (None yet. Trump is attacking us, you know)," he said.
Meanwhile, Almanza told reporters that the much-awaited rollout of the GBonds platform, announced by Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto late last year, would proceed in the first half of 2025.
She disclosed that e-wallet GCash is currently testing its connectivity with Philippine Digital Asset Exchange (PDAX), which will serve as the bond trading platform.
"Hopefully, when we again issue RTBs [retail treasury bonds], we already have GBonds," she said.
In November last year, Recto said GBonds was supposed to launch in December 2024, to make investing easier and more accessible to the public.
