1 month ago
10
If you dismiss the impeachment saga of Vice President Sara Duterte as just another rerun in the Philippine political circus, think again - because while we may be desensitized to that kind of drama, foreign investors are watching with sharp eyes, questioning the country’s political stability and that’s making them reconsider where to park their capital.
Sure, investors have no problem with holding government officials accountable, but what really keeps them up at night are the deeper questions - like how a team that marched in lockstep during the May 2022 elections spiraled into a bitter feud, and if the Vice President gets impeached, what’s next? A snap election? Another power struggle? More political plot twists to rattle an already chaotic landscape? And what about administration-allied officials tangled in their own web of irregularities—will they face the same reckoning, or does accountability stop where political alliances begin? It’s not just about justice; it’s about the unsettling unpredictability that could shake investor confidence to the core.
Investors aren’t just watching the impeachment showdown - they’re dissecting it, raising eyebrows over how the process is being handled: are the allegations of ‘ayuda’ (cash aid) for the signatories true despite the loud denials, or just political smoke and mirrors? And when the case hits the Senate floor, will it be a battle of principles or just another round of backroom deals dressed up as democracy?
Beyond the impeachment roller coaster, investors are similarly ahead in scanning the trajectory toward the mid-term elections, asking even more blazing questions: will the winners be loyal foot soldiers of the current administration, or will it be a fresh batch of political wild cards ready to shake up an already unstable deck?
And in just three years, another Presidential election unfolds - so what happens to today’s favored businesses and political allies when the power shuffle begins? Will they ride the wave or get dragged under, and are we gearing up for that all-too-familiar sequel: another former President getting jailed or ‘hospitalized’; or political dynasty facing prosecution—because in Philippine politics, today’s king is often tomorrow’s courtroom regular.
These are the burning questions for investors, because when you’re betting big on long-term infrastructure projects or planning to stick around for the long haul, it’s not just about profits - it’s about navigating political minefields, where every power shift could redraw the rules and turn today’s safe venture into tomorrow’s sunk cost.
Energy sector’s pitch for foreign investments
The country’s energy sector - especially the renewable energy (RE) space - is currently the loaded table on which foreign investors have been placing their bets. Some already got in, while others are still circling and sizing up whether the Philippine market is a jackpot waiting to happen or a gamble too risky to call.
The Philippines has to play its cards right because it’s not the only energy market vying for foreign investors - competition for capital is heating up as more countries are racing ahead in their energy transition goals, turning the global investment arena into a battleground where only the most strategic players with better policies and more stable political environment could win.
The Department of Energy (DOE) has been lining up a triple shot of green energy auctions (GEA) for RE projects: GEA-3 covers geothermal and hydropower technologies; then GEA-4 will be other RE technologies, including the integrated RE and energy storage system (IRESS) package; while GEA-5 is targeted for offshore wind developments.
Despite the government rolling out the red carpet with 100 percent ownership perks for large-scale geothermal projects (for those with minimum capitalization of $50 million) via financial and technical assistance agreement (FTAA) that the President shall sign, foreign investors are nowhere to be found in the roll of qualified bidders in the GEA-3 lineup —manifesting then that big promises don’t always seal the deal.
The last GEA for solar, wind, biomass and waste-to-energy facilities was some reality check also for the domestic energy market: that despite government’s hype about foreign investors wooed during the President’s state visits, the bid submissions had been a no-show zone for them—proving that handshakes and headlines don’t always translate to actual capital influx.
For GEA-5, foreign investors are already in the country and scoping out the offshore wind sector with interest. Still, the slow grind of some policy developments - especially the long-overdue marine spatial planning (MSP) – has been turning them restless and frustrated, and they are just stuck navigating a landscape with no tangible map and ‘no-go zones’ at this point. There’s no clear compass also for managing the environmental and social impacts of their projects.
When it’s time to lock in final investment decisions (FIDs), foreign investors are weighing more than just tariffs and grid access - they’re running the full gauntlet: bribery risks in permitting, policy viability, and the ever-looming shadow of political instability, all of which can kill a project faster than a bad balance sheet.
Suppose the Senate turns the impeachment court into a stage for questionable agendas and flawed processes. In that case, it won’t just damage political credibility - it will be a factor that could slam the brakes on foreign investments - leaving energy projects, data centers, and other infrastructure plans starving for capital in a climate of distrust.
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