How Philippines compares with ASEAN neighbors during oil shocks

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MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines faces global oil shocks such as due to the recent conflict between US-Israel and Iran with fewer buffers than many of its Southeast Asian peers.

"Medyo dehado po tayo," said Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities energy transition adviser Alberto Dalusong III in an interview Monday, April 6, on ANC's "Headstart." (We're in a bit of a disadvantage.)

The Philippines imports nearly all of its crude, has limited refining capacity, and depends heavily on fuel flows tied to the Middle East. That combination makes it a clearer "price taker" compared with neighbors that have stronger supply cushions or infrastructure.

"If we look at it, our brothers in ASEAN are better off because of their own indigenous supply," Dalusong said, partly in Filipino.

Indonesia: Oil-producing

Indonesia has stronger buffers due to its domestic oil and gas resources, but it is not insulated. It still imports 37% of its liquid natural gas and petroleum gas from Gulf countries.

While it is better positioned than the Philippines with oil and gas reserves, such import dependence and growing subsidy costs mean Jakarta is still struggling due to significant fiscal pressure during oil price spikes.

Malaysia: Supply edge

Malaysia benefits from indigenous oil and gas and the presence of Petronas, its national energy company. Being an oil producer, the country is less exposed to global shocks. But it still imports 25% of its oil—particularly the cheaper kind and some refined products—to cover consumption. It buys low for imports and sells high for exports.

This is why higher prices have still forced the government to expand subsidies and implement conservation measures, such as work-from-home arrangements for government workers.

Brunei: Strongest on supply security

Brunei is among the least vulnerable in terms of supply, backed by its own hydrocarbon reserves.

Revenues from hydrocarbon account for about 60% of its GDP. Its challenge lies more in managing revenue swings than ensuring access to fuel.

Singapore: Infrastructure edge

Singapore has almost no crude on its own but remains resilient due to its role as the "refiner of this part of the world," as Dalusong said.

Its edge lies in logistics, storage and commercial flexibility, allowing it to manage supply disruptions more effectively despite exposure to global prices.

Thailand: Gas as cushion 

Thailand's heavy natural gas reliance for power generation helps reduce the spillover of oil shocks into electricity costs, as Dalusong noted. Natural gas powers 55–60% of its electricity, far ahead of coal and renewables.

However, it is stil exposed in transport and has had to adjust pricing mechanisms and support measures to manage rising fuel costs.

Vietnam: Hydro buffers

Vietnam's sizeable hydropower base helps cushion its power sector from oil price spikes, but it still sources 49% of its LNG and LPG needs from the Middle East. Its transport and industry sectors are heavily dependent on petroleum.

Like other countries, it still faces pressure in transport fuel costs and has resorted to tax adjustments, such as by suspending fuel taxes. 

How the Philippines compares

The Philippines remains among the more vulnerable economies, relying heavily on imports and with its little domestic oil and gas and limited refining capacity.

Recent moves—including declaring an energy emergency, securing emergency fuel supplies and a safe-passage agreement with Iran, and sourcing alternative imports such as from Russia are efforts to manage supply risks in the short-term rather than absorb them structurally.

While ASEAN countries are not immune to oil shocks, many have stronger buffers—whether through domestic supply, infrastructure, or energy mix.

"What must do is to increase our indigenous share in our energy mix," Dalusong said, pointing to oil as the country's biggest energy source because of transportation, alongside coal.

Gita Wirjawan, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie's Russia Eurasia Center, warns of other effects of Middle East war in the short-term. 

The analyst points to other products the Philippines imports from the Middle East that affect agriculture and food security, particularly fertilizer.

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This will inevitably be more felt domestically, with higher prices of food and other goods and services.

"The degree of inflationary pressure or sensitivity for each economy in the region is highly correlated with the degree to which it imports oil," Wirjawan wrote. — Camille Diola