Gulf crisis: How global oil supply disruptions impact the Philippines

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Here is a collection of Rappler stories on the volatility of fuel prices, the risks to national supply, and the Philippine government’s emergency measures amid the Middle East conflict

For millions of Filipino households, changes in global oil prices are felt almost immediately through increases in fuel costs, transportation fares, and prices of everyday goods. These concerns are coming into focus as the ongoing armed conflict between the United States and Iran already causes strains in the global economy due to disruptions in the oil supply.

The current crisis reached a critical turning point on February 28, 2026, following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in joint US-Israeli airstrikes. This escalation triggered a wave of retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, placing the world’s most vital energy infrastructure directly in the line of fire.

The Middle East remains the heart of global energy, housing five of the world’s top 10 oil producers and accounting for over 40% of global exports. With instability now looming over the Strait of Hormuz, where around 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade is transited, energy markets are bracing for a sharp, sustained rise in oil prices.

This creates a direct risk for the Philippines, which sources 98% of its raw crude oil from the region. Any disruption to the flow of energy from the Middle East, where approximately 90% of LNG and crude oil exports are destined for Asia, would trigger an immediate “oil shock” for local consumers.

Following his March 7 warning that the Philippines’ oil reserve is sufficient for only 50 to 60 days, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has signaled a shift toward drastic emergency measures to stretch remaining resources and cushion the blow for consumers. These interventions include a transition to a four-day onsite work week intended to save up on national fuel consumption, alongside proposed fiscal relief through the temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes to stabilize soaring retail prices.

This curated series of reports explores how the conflicts in the Middle East unravels the vulnerability of the global oil supply chain, and how it directly impacts the Philippines’ inflation and everyday life.

OIL AND MARKETS: THE ECONOMIC TOLL

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GOVERNMENT RESPONSE AND POLICY

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– Rappler.com