Government raises growth outlook for exports, imports in 2026

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June 29, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The government raised its export growth outlook due to stronger demand for its top shipments while import expansion estimates were tweaked to account for the heavier cost impact of oil prices on the import bill.

Latest data from the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) showed external trade growth is expected to “remain moderate,” with the projected export goods expansion raised to three percent in 2026 from two percent previously.

Export growth assumptions were also lifted to four percent for 2027 to 2028, compared with the original three percent.

For 2029, the export growth expectation was retained at four percent. It also projected a five percent growth in 2030.

The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) attributed the upward revision in export growth to firmer global demand for electronics, agri-food products and minerals, as well as stronger-than-expected performance last year.

“However, this outlook is tempered by a projected slowdown in global trade due to a normalizing inventory cycle and potential supply chain disruptions arising from geopolitical tensions,” the DBM said.

At the same time, the DBCC mostly hiked its growth in goods imports due to “the significant cost impact of higher oil prices, which tend to disproportionately increase the import bill given the relatively inelastic demand for oil.”

Imports growth is forecast to grow by five percent in 2026, higher than the previous projection of two percent.