GDP growth seen at 5.2% this year

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February 1, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine economy may grow at a faster pace this year compared to last year if the government is able to deliver public projects without delay and put in place reforms to improve governance, according to Unicapital Group.

“For 2026, we project GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 5.2 percent, within the government’s five to six percent target, assuming timely execution of public projects and clearer signals of governance and policy support,” Unicapital said in its economics research report.

If Unicapital’s growth forecast is achieved, this year’s GDP growth will be higher than the 4.4 percent growth print last year.

Last year marked the third straight year that the government missed its GDP target as growth outturn fell below the 5.5 to 6.5 percent goal.

Last year’s average growth was also lower than the 5.7-percent expansion in 2024.

Department of Economy, Planning and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan attributed the slower pace of expansion last year to flood control corruption issues that dampened consumer and investor sentiment and weather-related disruptions.

Balisacan said global economic uncertainties also affected the country’s economic performance last year.

In the near-term, Unicapital said growth is expected to be constrained by the lingering weakness in investments.

Gross capital formation, which measures investments, dipped by 2.1 percent last year after posting a 7.7-percent growth in 2024.

“A sustained rebound in public infrastructure could help stabilize GDP and provide a modest upside to economic activity in the coming quarters,” Unicapital said.

Earlier, Balisacan said he is hopeful that the economy could return to five percent or higher growth by the second quarter of this year as the government steps up efforts to restore public trust.

To achieve a five to six percent growth this year, Balisacan said the economy would need to grow by five percent growth starting in the second quarter.