DOST: Quake swarms normal, hysteria baseless

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July 7, 2025 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — Government scientists have reiterated that earthquake swarms are normal and do not lead to major destruction, even as a Japanese manga comic book prediction causes tourist arrivals in Japan to plunge by double digits.

Islands off the Kagoshima prefecture in southwestern Japan have been shaken by over 1,300 temblors in the past two weeks, with the government warning on Saturday of stronger earthquakes to come.

Fears have been fueled by a viral doomsday prediction from the latest edition of the manga comic book “The Future I Saw,” first published in 1999 and authored by Japanese artist Ryo Tatsuki, warning of a disaster on July 5.

Science Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. explained on Friday that earthquake swarms are generally not a cause for concern.

“Swarms are typically small and not very destructive,” Solidum said on the sidelines of the 68th anniversary celebration of the Forest Products Research and Development Institute in Muntinlupa.

The secretary added that the swarms in Japan have no impact on the Philippines, though offshore earthquakes – originating beneath the ocean floor – could trigger a tsunami.

The most recent earthquake struck the sparsely populated Tokara Island chain, administratively part of the prefecture, at around 6:30 a.m. on Saturday, with a magnitude of 5.4 and a depth of 19 kilometers, according to state broadcaster NHK, citing Japan’s Meteorological Agency. No tsunami warning has been issued.

Solidum, who led the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) for two decades, said swarms are common in the Philippines. “Most don’t result in a major earthquake; some do, but not many,” he said.

Some of the recent weak temblors recorded include those near the boundary of Ifugao, Isabela and Mountain Province, caused by active fault movement. A total of 416 earthquakes took place from June 1 to 4, with magnitudes ranging between 1.2 and 3.6 and depths from 2 to 38 kilometers.

Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol emphasized that earthquakes cannot be precisely predicted with current technology.

“We can only give a range,” Bacolcol told News5 on Friday, “because this comes from seismology, so we can have an idea how many times a fault moved in the past.”

Bacolcol previously debunked social media posts claiming that in the aftermath of the 7.7-magnitude temblor in Myanmar last March 28, a powerful earthquake would hit the Philippines by the end of April.

Manila has been bracing for “the Big One,” a projected 7.2-magnitude earthquake resulting from the movement of the West Valley Fault, which could occur as early as 2058 or as late as 2258.

At the Saturday News Forum in Quezon City, Solidum said that “there is no scientific basis” for the manga comic book’s prediction, reiterating pleas from the Japan Meteorological Agency for the public to “base their understanding on scientific evidence.”

The manga’s doomsday prediction has caused tourist arrivals from Hong Kong to drop 11 percent in May compared to the same period last year.

Part of the hysteria stems from the manga’s first edition, which predicted a disaster happening in March 2011. Coincidentally, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake, a 3.6-meter tsunami and a nuclear crisis all rocked Japan on March 11, 2011.

In a statement, Tatsuki asserted she’s “not a prophet.”