Declining birth rate

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I have noticed, while walking at BGC and pet-friendly malls, many young couples pushing strollers but it’s a pet dog inside rather than a child. Are folks choosing pets over babies these days?

But not to save money. Raising those pet dogs can be as expensive as raising a kid. My late brother-in-law, a top pediatrician, once commented that the veterinarians who look after their pet dogs charge more than him.

Perhaps this trend of “fur parenting” is more because young professionals today fear the commitment of raising children, given what’s going on in the world and the uncertain work environment.

Raising a child is increasingly seen as a financial burden at the expense of personal development. Some estimates indicate it can cost at least P15 million to raise a child in the Philippines up to college. That’s probably on the low side.

Many millennials and Gen Z couples supposedly prefer a DINK (double income, no kids) lifestyle that prioritizes financial independence and retirement savings.

Millennials and Gen Z are significantly pushing back marriage. In 2022, the median age for marriage rose to 28 for women and 30 for men. Among Gen Z Filipinos who do plan to marry, roughly 60 percent intend to wait until after age 35.

Many young couples are opting for “live-in” arrangements instead of formal marriage. Cohabitation rates rose from five percent in 1993 to nearly 20 percent by 2022.

Maybe, it is better to get a dog. A dog provides companionship, stress relief, and unconditional love without the complications of getting married.

The average number of children Filipino women have in their lifetime has dropped to a record-low 1.7, according to the 2025 National Demographic and Health Survey released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) last month.

The 1.7 total fertility rate is a significant decline from 4.1 children per woman recorded in 1993. It is now below the replacement rate of 2.1. This means we are no longer producing enough children to maintain our current population size without immigration.

Nearly all regions of the country are experiencing a population drop but more pronounced in the urban areas where the rate has dipped to 1.5. The rural areas maintain a slightly higher fertility rate of 2.0.

Some economists think the decline in our birth rate creates a “window of opportunity” for faster growth, but it also risks the “aging before becoming rich” trap. The lower dependency ratio can help reallocate resources to reinvest into education, health care and infrastructure to make the current workforce more productive.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes that the Philippines is currently in this “dividend era,” with the dependency ratio projected to fall below 50 percent.

Experts from the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) project the Philippines will officially become an “aging population” between 2027 and 2030, when those aged 60+ will make up 10 to 11 percent of the population. By 2030, the PSA projects that seniors (aged 60+) will comprise 11 percent of the population.

According to CPD deputy executive director Lolito Tacardon, an aging population would be challenging for the government, because it is “still in the process of implementing, for example, universal health care.”

True, our government is still grappling with the safety nets and health infrastructure needed to cushion the shift to an aging population. The funds meant for universal health care are even being hijacked to fund corruption-laden ghost infrastructure projects.

So, what about that “demographic dividend” we are supposed to have? The IMF points out that a falling birth rate can help the economy for a specific period (roughly 25 years).

While this shift in our working-age population relative to dependents can potentially accelerate economic growth, we may miss any demographic dividend. The Philippine Development Plan points out the demographic dividend only works if the large working-age population is skilled and employed.

Low literacy rates and poor student performance means the “large workforce” might not be productive enough to support the economy. So, goodbye demographic dividend.

Then, there is also brain drain. The OECD highlights that the Philippines “educates to export” talent, which further depletes the domestic workforce needed to support the aging population. Long-term, fewer births will lead to fewer workers entering the economy each year.

The aging population will increase the burden on health care systems and social security as a smaller working population supports a larger elderly one.

When I was in journalism school at UP in the late 60s, there was a big drive to reduce the population growth rate. The then Institute of Mass Communication was given grants by the UN Fund for Population Activities  headed by a Filipino, Rafael Salas.

We worked on communication strategies to help manage what seemed to us at that time, was our rapid population growth.

In the 70s, electrification and introduction of television sets helped bring down birth rates. Today, people specially at the lower economic levels are glued to their mobile phones.

I guess new technologies and a change in social mores helped the family planning programs bring the birth rate down.

The decline is largely attributed today to improved education and higher economic status for women, who are increasingly choosing to delay marriage and limit family size to pursue personal and career goals.

Over 57 percent of married women reportedly no longer want more children. Use of modern family planning reached 44.5 percent in 2025, significantly contributing to the downward trend.

Now that we got the birth rate we thought we wanted, we find out that aging populations will strain pensions, healthcare and public finances, while shrinking workforces will constrict growth. Bernie Villegas was right, after all.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco