Credit Acceptance Announces First Quarter 2025 Results

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Suniway Group of Companies Inc.

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Southfield, Michigan, April 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Credit Acceptance Corporation (Nasdaq: CACC) (referred to as the "Company”, "Credit Acceptance”, "we”, "our”, or "us”) today announced consolidated net income of $106.3 million, or $8.66 per diluted share, for the three months ended March 31, 2025. Adjusted net income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for the three months ended March 31, 2025 was $114.8 million, or $9.35 per diluted share. The following table summarizes our financial results:

(In millions, except per share data) For the Three Months Ended
  March 31, 2025 December 31, 2024 March 31, 2024
GAAP net income $        106.3  $        151.9  $        64.3 
GAAP net income per diluted share $        8.66  $        12.26  $        5.08 
       
Adjusted net income $        114.8  $        126.0  $        117.4 
Adjusted net income per diluted share $        9.35  $        10.17  $        9.28 

Our results and achievements for the first quarter of 2025 included the following:

  • A modest decline in forecasted collection rates, which decreased forecasted net cash flows from our loan portfolio by $20.9 million, or 0.2%, and slower forecasted net cash flow timing.
  • An 11.0% increase in the average balance of our loan portfolio from the first quarter of 2024 to $7.9 billion, which is our largest ever.
  • A decline in Consumer Loan assignment unit and dollar volumes of 10.1% and 15.5%, respectively, as compared to the first quarter of 2024.
  • The repurchase of approximately 329,000 shares, or 2.7% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the quarter.
  • The enrollment of 1,617 new dealers with 10,789 active dealers during the quarter.
  • $68.0 million in dealer holdback and accelerated dealer holdback payments to dealers.
  • Maintained a strong liquidity position, with over $2.2 billion in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unused and available revolving lines of credit as of March 31, 2025.
  • Named a Top Workplaces USA award winner for the fifth year in a row, with a #2 ranking among companies of our size.

Consumer Loan Metrics

Dealers assign retail installment contracts (referred to as "Consumer Loans”) to Credit Acceptance. At the time a Consumer Loan is submitted to us for assignment, we forecast future expected cash flows from the Consumer Loan. Based on the amount and timing of these forecasts and expected expense levels, an advance or one-time purchase payment is made to the related dealer at a price designed to maximize economic profit, a non-GAAP financial measure that considers our return on capital, our cost of capital, and the amount of capital invested. 

We use a statistical model to estimate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan at the time of assignment. We continue to evaluate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan subsequent to assignment. Our evaluation becomes more accurate as the Consumer Loans age, as we use actual performance data in our forecast. By comparing our current expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan with the rate we projected at the time of assignment, we are able to assess the accuracy of our initial forecast. The following table compares our aggregated forecast of Consumer Loan collection rates as of March 31, 2025, with the aggregated forecasts as of December 31, 2024, and at the time of assignment, segmented by year of assignment:

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  Forecasted Collection Percentage as of (1) Current Forecast Variance from
 Consumer Loan Assignment Year March 31, 2025 December 31, 2024 Initial

Forecast

 December 31, 2024 Initial

Forecast

2016         63.9 %         63.9 %         65.4 %         0.0 %         -1.5 %
2017         64.8 %         64.7 %         64.0 %         0.1 %         0.8 %
2018         65.5 %         65.5 %         63.6 %         0.0 %         1.9 %
2019         67.2 %         67.2 %         64.0 %         0.0 %         3.2 %
2020         67.9 %         67.7 %         63.4 %         0.2 %         4.5 %
2021         63.9 %         63.8 %         66.3 %         0.1 %         -2.4 %
2022         60.0 %         60.2 %         67.5 %         -0.2 %         -7.5 %
2023         64.3 %         64.3 %         67.5 %         0.0 %         -3.2 %
2024         66.3 %         66.5 %         67.2 %         -0.2 %         -0.9 %
2025         66.0 %         -           66.2 %         -           -0.2 %

(1)   Represents the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the Consumer Loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the Consumer Loans at the time of assignment. Contractual repayments include both principal and interest. Forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled Consumer Loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates.

For the three months ended March 31, 2025, forecasted collection rates improved for Consumer Loans assigned in 2020, declined for Consumer Loans assigned in 2022, 2024, and 2025, and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented.

The changes to our forecast of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio (forecasted collections less forecasted dealer holdback payments) for each of the last five quarters are shown in the following table:

(Dollars in millions) Decrease in Forecasted Net Cash Flows
Three Months Ended Total Loans % Change from Forecast at Beginning of Period
March 31, 2024 $        (30.8)          -0.3 %
June 30, 2024          (189.3)          -1.7 %
September 30, 2024          (62.8)          -0.6 %
December 31, 2024          (31.1)          -0.3 %
March 31, 2025          (20.9)          -0.2 %

The following table presents information on Consumer Loan assignments for each of the last 10 years:

   Average Total Assignment Volume
 Consumer Loan

Assignment Year

 Consumer Loan (1) Advance (2) Initial Loan Term (in months) Unit Volume Dollar Volume (2)

(in millions)

2016 $        18,218 $        7,976 53 330,710 $        2,635.5
2017  20,230  8,746 55 328,507  2,873.1
2018  22,158  9,635 57 373,329  3,595.8
2019  23,139  10,174 57 369,805  3,772.2
2020  24,262  10,656 59 341,967  3,641.2
2021  25,632  11,790 59 268,730  3,167.8
2022  27,242  12,924 60 280,467  3,625.3
2023  27,025  12,475 61 332,499  4,147.8
2024  26,497  11,961 61 386,126  4,618.4
      2025 (3)  25,188  11,096 60 100,278  1,112.7

(1)   Represents the repayments that we were contractually owed on Consumer Loans at the time of assignment, which include both principal and interest.

(2)   Represents advances paid to dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the portfolio program and one-time payments made to dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the purchase program. Payments of dealer holdback and accelerated dealer holdback are not included.

(3)   Represents activity for the three months ended March 31, 2025. Information in this table for each of the years prior to 2025 represents activity for all 12 months of that year.

The profitability of our loans is primarily driven by the amount and timing of the net cash flows we receive from the spread between the forecasted collection rate and the advance rate, less operating expenses and the cost of capital. Forecasting collection rates accurately at loan inception is difficult. With this in mind, we establish advance rates that are intended to allow us to achieve acceptable levels of profitability across our portfolio, even if collection rates are less than we initially forecast.

The following table presents aggregate forecasted Consumer Loan collection rates, advance rates, and spreads (the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate), and the percentage of the forecasted collections that had been realized as of March 31, 2025, as well as forecasted collection rates and spreads at the time of assignment. All amounts, unless otherwise noted, are presented as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loan (principal + interest). The table includes both dealer loans and purchased loans.

  Forecasted Collection % as of   Spread % as of  
 Consumer Loan Assignment Year March 31, 2025 Initial Forecast Advance % (1) March 31, 2025 Initial Forecast % of Forecast

Realized (2)

2016         63.9 %         65.4 %         43.8 %         20.1 %         21.6 %         99.6 %
2017         64.8 %         64.0 %         43.2 %         21.6 %         20.8 %         99.3 %
2018         65.5 %         63.6 %         43.5 %         22.0 %         20.1 %         98.8 %
2019         67.2 %         64.0 %         44.0 %         23.2 %         20.0 %         97.5 %
2020         67.9 %         63.4 %         43.9 %         24.0 %         19.5 %         93.9 %
2021         63.9 %         66.3 %         46.0 %         17.9 %         20.3 %         86.3 %
2022         60.0 %         67.5 %         47.4 %         12.6 %         20.1 %         70.6 %
2023         64.3 %         67.5 %         46.2 %         18.1 %         21.3 %         49.3 %
2024         66.3 %         67.2 %    

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