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Keisha Ta-Asan - The Philippine Star
December 1, 2025 | 12:00am
Economists polled by The STAR show estimates ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 percent. This comes after inflation held steady at 1.7 percent in October, also bringing the 10-month average to 1.7 percent.
STAR / File
Analysts’ poll for November
MANILA, Philippines — Economists expect inflation in November to either slow or hold steady from the October print, reinforcing the trend of subdued price growth after months of soft demand and improved food supply.
Economists polled by The STAR show estimates ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 percent. This comes after inflation held steady at 1.7 percent in October, also bringing the 10-month average to 1.7 percent.
If realized, November inflation would mark the ninth straight month that consumer price growth stayed below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s two to four percent target for the year.
Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas gave the lowest projection at 1.5 percent, saying softer food prices offset energy-related pressures during the month.
“I expect November inflation to ease to around 1.5 percent, below the market consensus of 1.7 percent, as softer food prices and tempered demand offset energy cost pressures,” he said.
Ravelas added that continued disinflation “gives the BSP room to maintain an accommodative stance and possibly cut rates further to support growth.”
BPI lead economist Jun Neri sees inflation edging lower to 1.6 percent in November, citing easing food and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices.
“Our estimate for November inflation is at 1.6 percent on the drop in key food prices like vegetables, fruits and meat. Lower LPG prices may have helped, too,” he said.
RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort, who projects full-year 2025 inflation at 1.6 percent, said weak economic performance continues to temper price pressures.
The Philippine economy grew by four percent in the third quarter, its slowest pace in four years, as the flood control controversy weighed on consumer and investor confidence while typhoons disrupted economic activity.
These factors, Ricafort said, “could still fundamentally support relatively benign inflation, which is still below the BSP inflation target range of two to four percent amid softer demand and local economic conditions.”
He added that this environment could justify another 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut at the Monetary Board’s Dec. 11 policy meeting, while a stable peso would allow the BSP to match any future US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The Monetary Board delivered a 25-bp cut at its Oct. 9 meeting, bringing the benchmark policy rate to an over three-year low of 4.75 percent. It has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 175 bps since it began its easing cycle in August 2024.
Other analysts expect inflation to stay around October levels. Metrobank chief economist and markets strategist Nicholas Mapa pegs inflation at 1.7 percent.
“Slight pickup in utilities and fuel could have nudged heading higher. Food inflation due to storm damage is also likely delivering some upside pressure,” he said.
Oikonomia Advisory & Research Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece also sees a 1.7-percent print due to sustained price pressures and seasonal demand.
“Food and electricity prices remain high. The holiday season spending is also a factor given high demand for goods during the period,” he said.
Despite this, Erece said the Philippines is “still on track to reach sub two-percent inflation for the entire year.”
The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the official November inflation report on Dec. 5.
