Confidence and optimism

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No matter how bad a year has been, Filipinos can be expected to ooze with confidence and optimism for the new year. It must be a coping mechanism that makes Filipinos resilient in the face of natural and man-made challenges.

The SWS year-end surveys consistently show high Filipino optimism for the New Year, with figures often above 90 percent entering the new year with “hope rather than fear.” We are still waiting for the New Year survey results.

This year, the SWS survey that covered expectations for Christmas done Nov. 24-30, 2025 found that 68 percent of adult Filipinos are looking forward to being happy (masaya).

The 68 percent is three points higher than 65 percent in 2024, but five points lower than 73 percent in both 2023 and 2022. It is 18 points above the record-low 50 percent in 2020 but 11 points below the pre-pandemic level of 79 percent in 2019.

The BSP also conducts quarterly surveys to measure consumer and business confidence, used by the Monetary Board to guide them in formulating monetary policies.

In its latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), the BSP found that Filipino consumer confidence was lower in the fourth quarter of the year due to graft and corruption concerns, higher inflation, lower household income, unfavorable weather conditions and other natural calamities.

Results of the latest survey show that the overall consumer confidence index (CI) turned more negative at -22.2 percent in Q4 2025 from -9.8 percent in Q3 2025.

A negative CI means there are more respondents with a negative outlook than a positive outlook on the economy.

On the other hand, Philippine businesses were more optimistic about the economy in the fourth quarter of the year, driven by an expected increase in OFW remittances and consumer spending during the holiday season.

Results of BSP’s latest Business Expectations Survey (BES) show that the overall business CI increased to 29.7 percent in Q4 2025 from 23.2 percent in the previous quarter.

A positive CI means more respondents are optimistic than pessimistic.

What about next year?

BSP’s consumer CI for both the next quarter and the next 12 months remained positive at 3.6 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively, reflecting favorable outlook in the near term.

“Consumers also expect inflation over the next 12 months to stay within the National Government’s target range, indicating well-anchored household inflation expectations,” the BSP explained.

But business sentiment for the next quarter and the next 12 months was less upbeat. The quarter-ahead CI settled at 23.7 percent, significantly down from 49.5 percent in the previous survey; while the year-ahead CI settled at 40.4 percent, down from 48.1 percent previously.

The BSP attributed the business sector’s pessimism compared to the consumer sector to “lingering effects of the recent natural calamities, together with the negative impact of corruption allegations on investor and business sentiment.”

How can we explain the difference between consumer and business sentiment?

Consumer pessimism for the last quarter despite the holidays is a measure of the general sentiment following the discovery of massive corruption in public works projects.

As for sentiment for 2026, Filipinos are always looking forward to a happy and prosperous new year regardless of the situation surrounding them. It helps them navigate stormy months carried over from the current year.

The business sector, on the other hand, is always hopeful that a massive infusion of OFW remittances during the holiday season will move consumer spending and the economy up.

But the business sector knows 2026 will be rather messy and is therefore gearing up for trouble. Resolving the corruption scandal hasn’t gone anywhere yet and many in the business community are skeptical the BBM administration has what it takes to fix the mess to satisfy public expectations.

With the mysterious suicide of a DPWH undersecretary last week, the public is worried that the sordid details of DPWH corruption cases will be buried with her. It didn’t help that the Benguet local police messed up the investigation and failed to retain the cell phone and bag of the undersecretary as evidence.

Incidentally, SWS also released its Survey on Corruption which revealed interesting highlights.

Here are some of them:

Governance topped the list of the country’s most important problems, overtaking the economy and social services.

Eighty-four percent of respondents see a lot of corruption in government. Seventy-seven percent believe corruption in the government is more widespread now than three years ago.

Corruption is seen mostly in the national government (83 percent), followed by provincial (38 percent), city/municipal (35 percent) and barangay (25 percent) levels. Three in four (75 percent) say government employees ask for bribes, while 23 percent say citizens initiate bribery.

Most say corruption is wrong because it hurts national development (77 percent), rather than because it is immoral (22 percent).

Six in 10 (61 percent) are optimistic that the government can be run without corruption.

A plurality (41 percent) says the government almost never punishes corrupt officials. Six in 10 (60 percent) rate the current administration’s anti-corruption efforts as hardly effective or not at all effective.

Among those aware of corruption, 49 percent experienced it in the past year, but 96 percent did not report it, citing lack of action or knowledge on where to report, among other reasons.

A plurality 43 percent have little confidence that no government official or private individual will interfere with the ICI investigation.

Thirty-seven percent have seen, read or heard about the Trillion Peso March, with 71 percent of them believing that it will pressure the government to address corruption.

The most effective proposed measures are stiffer penalties (74 percent) and filing of cases (71 percent) against corrupt officials.

And so, we move on to another year trying very hard to be hopeful for better things ahead.

Boo Chanco’s email address is. Follow him on X @boochanco