China doubled patrols at Scarborough Shoal in 2025, new data shows

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January 30, 2026 | 3:21pm

MANILA, Philippines — China more than doubled its coast guard presence at Scarborough Shoal in 2025, according to new analysis released Thursday, January 29. 

Data shows China kept up patrols around the feature nearly every day of the year as Beijing intensified its focus on the maritime feature, which sits within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.

The China Coast Guard recorded 1,099 ship days at Scarborough in 2025 — up from 516 in 2024 — with patrols observed on 352 calendar days, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found. The Washington-based research group analyzed automatic identification system data from commercial provider Starboard Maritime Intelligence.

While overall patrol volume increased from 1,939 ship days in 2024 to 2,183 in 2025, Beijing concentrated resources at Scarborough and nearby Escoda (Sabina) Shoal while reducing presence elsewhere — cutting patrols at Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal from 288 to 131 ship days and at Thitu Island from 281 to just 51.

Automatic identification data shows an average of three coast guard ships active around Scarborough daily, though the true presence was almost certainly higher due to signal gaps and disabled transponders, according to the report. 

These findings correspond to the frequent presence of Chinese vessels that both the Philippine Coast Guard and the Armed Forces of the Philippines reported in 2025.

In August 2025, a Chinese navy destroyer collided with its own coast guard vessel while pursuing a Philippine patrol boat — the most severe incident between the two countries at Scarborough to date.

'Biggest evolution' in coast guard behavior

The increase of CCG patrols at Scarborough mirrors a similar trend at Escoda Shoal, where patrols nearly tripled from 139 to 405 ship days and extended southward to encompass nearby unoccupied features like Half Moon Shoal, according to the report. 

At the southwestern edge of the nine-dash line, Chinese vessels shifted focus to Malaysian waters, spending 261 calendar days there compared to just 42 at Vanguard Bank.

The changes represent "the biggest evolution in CCG behavior since AMTI began conducting regular AIS analysis of CCG patrol patterns in 2019," according to the AMTI.

Scarborough Shoal sits 120 nautical miles from Zambales and is well within the country's EEZ. China seized control of the feature in 2012 and has maintained near-constant coast guard presence since, despite a 2016 ruling that found Beijing's blockade violated international law by denying access to traditional fishing grounds.

China's State Council announced plans in September 2025 to establish a national nature reserve covering 3,523 hectares of Scarborough, which Beijing calls Huangyan Dao. 

The Philippines rejected the designation as an unlawful attempt to consolidate control through the pretext of environmental conservation.