Cebu Pacific’s January passenger count up 33% y/y

Cebu Pacific [CEB 28.90, down 2.7%] [link], the Gokongwei Family’s budget airline, said it carried 2.6 million passengers in January 2025, up 33.4% from January 2024. CEB said that its seat load factor increased to 86.5% (from 85.1%) despite a 31.2% increase in seat capacity. Domestic passenger traffic was up 34.6%, with a seat load factor of 87% and a capacity increase of 37%. International passenger traffic was up 29.9%, with a seat load factor of 85.1% and a capacity increase of 17%.

MB bottom-line: The thing for me is that CEB is flying with planes stuffed full of people to the level (and beyond) that it was doing in The Before Times before COVID nuked the industry and inflation killed our cash. So what’s the problem? Pretty much everything else. Fuel is more expensive. American dollars are more expensive. Labor is more expensive. Interest rates are higher. Planes are hard to buy and more expensive to maintain. Storms and natural disaster disruptions are increasing. CEB’s stock is basically flat for 2025 so far, but it’s down 16% over the last 12 months. That’s not the worst, but with this kind of risk exposure, what’s the upside?

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