Can a ‘Bagong Pilipinas’ promise secure the midterms for Bongbong Marcos?

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There was, perhaps, some foreshadowing on February 11, when President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took the campaign stage for the first time in the 2025 midterm elections.

Surrounded by a crowd of his clan’s loyalists in Laoag, Ilocos Norte, the Philippine president drew a contrast between his administration and that of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, whose support he once sought.

“Bilang isang sambayanang may dangal, may sipag, at may talino, tayo ba ay papayag na babalik sa panahon…kung kailan gusto ng ating mga liderato maging probinsiya tayo ng Tsina?” he asked.

“Nais ba nating bumalik sa landas na umaapaw sa dugo ng mga inosenteng mga bata…na inagaw sa kanilang mga ina?” continued Marcos, hitting Duterte for two of his most controversial moves when he was president: trying to bring Manila closer to Beijing and a bloody drug war that claimed thousands of casualties.

(As a country that has honor, diligence, intelligence, will we allow ourselves to go back to a time when our leaders wanted us to be a province of China? Do we want to go back to the time when innocent children…were snatched from their mothers?)

The goal was simple: draw a contrast between his administration and that of his predecessor because, hopefully, that would sway voters to his slate. Former president Duterte did the same during his own slate’s launch, hitting Marcos for his supposed economic and safety shortcomings in his trademark brutal language.

Almost exactly a month later, the Marcos administration, acting on an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant communicated through the International Criminal Police Organization or Interpol, would arrest Duterte and send him to The Hague, where he now faces crimes against humanity charges over his drug war.

It’s at this point in the campaign where the 2025 elections turned not just into a choice between the Marcos Jr. administration and the former Duterte administration, but also the personalities of and in the clans themselves.

As the Duterte clan sees a resurgence in their popularity, can Marcos’ promise of a “Bagong Pilipinas” be enough to convince voters to choose his bets?

An election with two presidents

Former president Duterte, despite mostly keeping out of the limelight since stepping down, had managed to remain relatively popular. The popularity also apparently translated to endorsement power that was stronger than Marcos’, according to campaign operatives Rappler spoke to early in the campaign.

It was clout that the Duterte slate — which started off with nine before expanding to include one more — hoped to tap in 2025.

The Marcos administration had a lot going against them. Gut issues — the price of goods, jobs, and unemployment — remained the top concern of Filipinos. Public satisfaction with how the administration was handling these issues was either stagnant or going down.

Disapproval of how his administration was controlling inflation, fighting graft and corruption, reducing poverty, and increasing workers’ pay coincided with a dramatic nosedive of Marcos’ trust and approval numbers, according to a late March 2025 Pulse Asia survey. It was the pollster’s first publicly-released gauge of Marcos’ popularity in the aftermath of the Duterte arrest.

Alyansa’s bets have seen their numbers either slip, stay the same, or increase by just a point or two as the campaign progressed.

Even Alyansa front-runner ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo has seen his numbers go down, according to Pulse Asia polls. A Social Weather Stations survey held earlier in May shows Tulfo slightly ahead of his closest rival, reelectionist Senator Bong Go, long-time aide to former president Duterte.

At the same time, Duterte bets — Go and former police chief Ronald dela Rosa, especially — have seen their numbers improve dramatically, at least according to Pulse Asia. Vice President Duterte has also seen her approval and trust ratings recover, according to the Pulse Asia poll.

It’s a situation unique to 2025. Former Philippine presidents often fade into relative electoral obscurity, especially in the midterm election immediately after their term. Former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, after her arrest, endorsed and allied herself with senatorial bets, but not to the extent former president Duterte was poised to do.

Before his arrest, Duterte was meant to join his bets in various sorties around the country.

At the slate’s miting de avance or final rally before election day on Friday, May 9, Marcos bannered his administration’s efforts to improve the economy.

“Kaya po tayo ay kinikilala ngayon na maganda ang takbo ng ekonomiya. Noong nagsimula po tayo, napakabilis ng pagtaas ng presyo ng bilihin. Iyon po ang aming inaalala at dahan-dahan po naming tinatrabaho,” he said in Mandaluyong, Alyansa candidate Benhur Abalos’ home turf.

(We’re being recognized for how well the economy is going. When we started, the price of goods was rising so fast. We took note of that and we slowly worked on bringing it down.)

Marcos also revived two promises from 2022 — bringing the price of rice down to P20 per kilo to other parts of the country outside the pilot area of Cebu, and of the ever-so-evasive unity.

“Wala pong mangyayari sa atin kung tayo ay hindi magkasundo at hindi nagtutulungan. Kaya ko po isinisigaw ang pagkakaisa,” he said. (Nothing will happen if we do not unite and help each other. That is why I call for unity.)

That’s easier said than done in an election that’s even more polarized than usual — even if it’s not a presidential contest.

The question of Mindanao

During the 90-day campaign, Alyansa staged campaign sorties in the following areas:

February 11: Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
February 13: Iloilo City, Iloilo
February 15: Carmen, Davao del Norte
February 18: Pasay City, Metro Manila
February 20: Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental
February 21: Bacolod City, Negros Occidendal
February 28: San Jose del Monte City, Bulacan
March 7: Pili, Camarines Sur
March 14: Tacloban City, Leyte
March 21: Trece Martires, Cavite
March 22: Santa Rosa City, Laguna
April 4: Antipolo City, Rizal
April 25: Dagupan City, Pangasinan
May 2: Lucena City, Quezon
May 3: Batangas City, Batangas
May 7: Malolos City, Bulacan
May 9: Miting de avance in Mandaluyong, Metro Manila

Marcos and his slate also campaigned in Cebu City through both smaller sorties and a big rally hosted by Governor Gwen Garcia’s One Cebu. They barnstormed Pampanga, sans Marcos, through smaller campaign events as well.

A cursory check of the sorties list will point to the obvious lack of Mindanao stops. The only time Marcos and his candidates visited the island was at the start of the campaign in Davao del Norte, the home province of the President’s close friend, Special Assistant to the President Anton Lagdameo.

Alyansa proclamation rally in Iloilo City

Pulse Asia’s late March 2025 trust and approval poll showed that Marcos had the lowest approval and trust ratings in the Dutertes’ bailiwick, Mindanao. There, he dropped to single digits — 5% approval and 4% trust ratings.

Tulfo, in a press conference ahead of their Mandaluyong miting de avance on May 9, downplayed any possible “worry” over the lack of Alyansa sorties in Mindanao.

“Hindi naman, not really kasi may mga survey na kung titingnan mo marami-rami pa rin sa grupo though hindi lahat ng Alyansa ay pasok doon sa choices ng mga tao doon. Pero marami pa rin — what apat, limang miyembro ng Alyansa ang pinili pa rin doon sa Mindanao. Particularly, particularly in Region 9 and Region 10,” he explained.

(Not really because surveys indicate that many in the group, although not all, are among the top choices of Mindanaoans — maybe 4 or 5, especially in Region 9 and Region 10.)

Region 9 is the Zamboanga Peninsula while Region 10 is Northern Mindanao.

The lack of Alyansa sorties doesn’t mean the candidates themselves never campaigned in Mindanao individually.

Conversely, campaigning in Mindanao without Marcos, unpopular in most parts of the island, gives candidates wiggle room to negotiate with local officials and clans themselves or as a coalition.

The same could apply to the Visayas, where Marcos’ trust and approval ratings also dropped based on the March Pulse Asia survey.

All the way?

After presidential sister reelectionist Senator Imee Marcos finally dropped out of the slate in protest of Duterte’s arrest, President Marcos debuted a new battlecry: “All the way, Alyansa.”

The metaphors are numerous, but consistent — in the journey for a “Bagong Pilipinas” (literally, a “new Philippines”), Marcos says it is his anointed candidates who should help lead the way.

Yet of the 11, at least one hasn’t been fully all the way, if you take into account participation in the major rallies. House Deputy Speaker Camille Villar has been missing in many of the rallies. She skipped the Leyte, Cavite, and Laguna stops right after Duterte’s arrest, showed up in Rizal, then was absent for the rest of the slate’s rallies, or after she was endorsed by Vice President Duterte.

President Marcos and Malacañang have also been flip-floppy about her inclusion. He neglected to mention her name in vote-rich provinces Batangas and Cebu but then endorsed her again in his stump speech in Bulacan.

Palace press officer Undersecretary Claire Castro had questioned Villar’s actions, but campaign manager Toby Tiangco maintained that she’s still fully part of the slate — even after Malacañang ordered a probe into the bad services of her clan’s PrimeWater.

When Marcos says he and his bets are for a “Bagong Pilipinas,” what does it even mean? Unlike his 2022 “unity” call, it does dive into specific goals through his administration’s Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028.

In terms of rhetoric and imagery, “Bagong Pilipinas” can be overtly saccharine and even trite. There is a line in the “Bagong Pilipinas Hymn,” mandatory in all flag ceremonies by government offices and agencies, that exemplifies this.

“Panahon na ng pagbabago // At iayos ang mga dapat ayusin // Dapat lang maging tungkulin // Ng bawat mamamayan dito sa atin.”

(It’s time for change // To fix what must be fixed // This is the duty // Of each citizen in the country.)

Alyansa rallies are rife with this sort of nationalism, too — original songs that go on about the pride and duty of a Filipino mark the beginning, middle, and end of the program.

It’s only rapper Andrew E’s irreverence, in performances where he alternates between campaign-appropriate remakes of his popular raunchy songs and his take on a popular Korean artists’ ear worm of a hit — that breaks the monotony of Filipino dance and nationalistic anthems.

Speaking at their final press conference as Alyansa bets, former senator Ping Lacson expressed confidence that they were peaking at the right time. In May 2025, as in February 2025, most of the members of the slate are likely to get either their first or a fresh six-year Senate term.

But this is the reality for the Marcos administration: winning the majority of Senate seats is but one step. For it is when the final piece of confetti falls and the campaign fireworks fizzle out that you start asking the harder question: Does the administration have enough numbers to convict Sara Duterte in an impeachment trial?

And more importantly, will a win for Marcos and Alyansa in 2025 really translate to a better life — be it in a Bagong Pilipinas or not — for a nation that wants its gut issues addressed. – Rappler.com

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