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Brix Lelis - The Philippine Star
April 18, 2026 | 12:00am
MANILA, Philippines — Another round of relief is on the way for motorists, with diesel prices likely to fall by double digits again next week as the fragile Middle East ceasefire continues to hold.
After four trading days in the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), an industry source yesterday estimated a potential price cut of P17 to P19 per liter for diesel and P2 to P3 per liter for gasoline.
The war premium on oil prices has continued to unwind due to easing tensions in the Middle East, the source noted.
A 10-day ceasefire has started between Israel and Lebanon. US President Donald Trump also said a deal is expected with Iran “very soon” in talks brokered by Pakistan.
If the trend holds and the rollback pushes through, diesel prices could fall below P130 per liter. Yesterday’s trading would determine the final price adjustments, which will take effect on April 21.
Under threat of legal action, oil firms implemented the government-calculated rollback this week, with diesel, gasoline and kerosene prices dropping by at least P20.89, P4.43 and P8.50 per liter, respectively.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin, however, said Filipinos should accept that pump prices are unlikely to return to P60 or P50 per liter anytime soon.
Even if prices eventually return to pre-war levels, Garin stressed that it would take time, given the extent of damage to critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East.
“I don’t want to be a downer, but we owe it to the public to be realistic,” the energy chief told The STAR’s online show “Truth on the Line” on Thursday.
In Metro Manila and other highly urbanized areas, diesel and gasoline now sell for around P147 and P116 per liter, respectively, latest Department of Energy (DOE) data show.
Garin said the DOE has already begun announcing minimum rollbacks and maximum price hikes, even with the Oil Deregulation Law in place that liberalizes the country’s downstream industry.
She pointed to a provision of the law, which empowers the DOE to “temporarily take over or direct the operation” of oil industry players in times of national emergency.
Excise tax suspension
President Marcos has issued the executive order that suspended the excise taxes on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene for three months.
Under Executive Order 114, signed by Executive Secretary Ralph Recto by authority of the President on April 16, the suspension of excise taxes exempts LPG when used as raw material for production of petrochemical products or used for motive power, and kerosene when used as aviation fuel.
The EO did not include diesel and gasoline products.
“The excise tax rates on petroleum products shall automatically revert to the rates prescribed under Section 148 of the NIRC (National Internal Revenue Code), as amended, without need of further issuance, upon the occurrence of any of the following, whichever comes first: one week after the one month average Dubai crude oil based on MOPS falls below $80 per barrel, as certified by the DOE, or upon expiration of the duration provided under Section 2,” the EO said.
On April 10, the DOE certified that the average Dubai crude oil – used as benchmark for Asia – based on MOPS covering the last 30 days, has reached $93.71 per barrel.
Section 148 of the NIRC of 1997, as amended, imposes excise taxes on refined and manufactured mineral oils and motor fuels.
The EO directed the DOE to require oil companies to submit, on a monthly basis, information on the cost components of petroleum products covered by the order during the suspension.
The DOE shall submit such information to the Development Budget Coordination Committee and Congress as required under Republic Act 12316, the law signed by Marcos on March 25, authorizing the suspension or reduction of excise taxes on petroleum products once global oil prices reach a set threshold.
The order will take effect immediately upon its publication.
Marcos has said the excise tax suspension would reduce the prices of LPG by P3.36 per kilo or about P37 per tank and kerosene by P5.65 per liter.
Finance Undersecretary Karlo Adriano, at a recent Palace briefing, said the excise tax on diesel only accounts for P6 per liter, a “relatively small” amount, given that its price has reached P100 per liter. — Helen Flores, Aubrey Rose Inosante, Louella Desiderio, Jose Rodel Clapano, Josiah Antonio
