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Richmond Mercurio - The Philippine Star
June 23, 2025 | 12:00am
The Philippine Stock Exchange is located at Bonifacio Global City in Taguig, Metro Manila.
BusinessWorld / file
MANILA, Philippines — The local stock market is likely to continue its sideways movement this week as cautious investor sentiment is expected to prevail amid geopolitical tensions, especially after the United States bombed three nuclear sites in Iran.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) finished in negative territory last Friday at 6,339.77, down by 0.87 percent week-on-week.
“Rising inflation expectations amidst looming big time oil price hike at the pump and calls for wage hikes and increased jeepney fares will dominate sentiment, damping risk appetite and capping market upside of PSEi’s sideways path,” First Metro Investment Corp. head of research Cristina Ulang said.
Unicapital Securities head of research Wendy Estacio-Cruz said the index is seen trading within the 6,300 to 6,500 range this week.
After digesting last week the recent policy rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas that were both in line with expectations, she said the market may remain cautious in the coming days amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, as it poses risks to oil prices and the inflation rate.
“Investor focus is shifting toward key economic indicators, such as the trade balance and Q2 consumer confidence data scheduled for release on June 27,” Estacio-Cruz said.
Philstocks Financial research manager Japhet Tantiangco, on his end, said trading has been lethargic for the most part of last week as a reflection of tepid market confidence amid lingering risks.
Tantiangco said sentiment this week could remain bearish due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
“If the said conflict continues to push oil prices higher and cause the peso to depreciate further, then these may pull the local market lower. A further escalation of the said conflict is also expected to be a significant headwind for the local bourse,” he said.
Tantiangco said the local market’s sideways movement is exhibiting a downward bias, especially with the market being unable to get past its 10-day exponential moving average.
He said the market’s 50-day exponential moving average, which serves as the market’s immediate support, could be tested this week.
“A fall below the said line may lead to further bearish movements in the near term. Major support is still seen at 6,150, while major resistance is seen at 6,400,” he said.
