After record 2025, NAIA traffic may slow in 2026

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January 5, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) handled a record 52 million passengers in 2025, but could shrink this year for various reasons, leading to lower revenues for the government.

Based on the draft performance scorecard of the Manila International Airport Authority (MIAA), the regulator said revenue share from NAIA is expected to drop by 14 percent to P18.67 billion this year, from P21.76 billion in 2025.

The computation is based on the financial proposal of private operator New NAIA Infrastructure Corp. (NNIC), which has committed to turn over 82.16 percent of gross revenues from NAIA to MIAA under their concession.

This is particularly curious given that NAIA’s passenger traffic jumped to a record 52.02 million last year. More airport activity means more income raised for NNIC, partly to share with MIAA and partly to fund the P170.6-billion rehabilitation of NAIA.

MIAA general manager Eric Jose Ines said NAIA’s passenger volume may decrease this year due to the transfer of turboprop flights to secondary airports. By March, all turboprop aircraft will be withdrawn from NAIA to dedicate its runway solely for larger jets.

Turboprops are assigned to reach airports with shorter runways, typically island destinations that are popular to both Filipinos and foreigners, such as Coron and Siargao.

Ines added NNIC has yet to complete the new Terminal 4, which is only expected to open by mid-2026, so there would be little room for additional capacity in the first semester.

“Above could be contributory to the decrease in income, but we will see, [since] it is too early to make these projections,” Ines told The STAR.

De La Salle University economics professor Maria Ella Oplas also sees Filipinos hanging on to their savings this year. With the economy expanding slower, Filipinos are gearing up for tougher times, and non-essential spending like travel would have to wait.

“I think travel is the least of priorities right now. There is insecurity of not knowing what would happen the following month, so they would rather hold on to their money,” Oplas told The STAR.

Citing the latest jobs data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, Oplas said more Filipinos are unemployed in 2025 than in 2024, so some may be entering 2026 without any travel plans.

The unemployment rate soared to 4.2 percent in the 10 months to October 2025, higher than the 3.8 percent in 2024, although the 2025 figures have yet to be complete.

The Airports Council International (ACI) expects passenger traffic in Southeast Asian airports to rise by 5.1 percent annually between 2025 and 2028, still 6.6 percent below pre-pandemic levels because of aircraft delivery delays.

ACI said Vietnam will be leading the charge with 8.1 percent growth, followed by Indonesia and Thailand, both with four percent. The Philippines was not listed as a growth leader.

NNIC, the group that won the 15-year concession to upgrade NAIA, has remitted more than P57 billion to the government to date. In spite of this, MIAA is reporting that it is missing its targets in revenue share from NAIA operations.

Between January and September 2025, MIAA got P13.77 billion in revenue share from NNIC, a 16-percent difference from its P16.32-billion target.

For 2025, the regulator projects total remittance of P21.76 billion from NNIC, as laid out in the performance evaluation system approved by the Governance Commission for GOCCs.

MIAA, as a state-run firm, relies on NNIC remittances to transmit to the Bureau of the Treasury its dividend requirements, which are then used by the government to partly fund its budget.