3 weeks ago
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This is how former Philippine government official Rene Almendras described the new world trade setup under the second term of US President Donald Trump, which is raising alarm signals among Japan, the Philippines and Australia – the US government’s economic, trade and security partners, with the likelihood of all three dialogue partners becoming “economic collateral damage” from the competing economic and security interest of the United States and China, following last week’s two-day (Feb. 17 and 18) trilateral dialogue held at the Fairmont Hotel in Makati under the auspices of Australian, Canberra-based think tank – The Institute for Regional Security (The Institute).
Speaking to select reporters, Almendras and Chris Gardiner, chief executive officer of The Institute, outlined the importance of the trilateral dialogue in allowing all three countries to share information and support each other in dealing with the recent rapid and still evolving developments on global economic and trade matters, and security.
According to Almendras, who recently joined the board of The Institute in his private capacity, “This is a new world order of a politicized and weaponized trade set up which now requires every country to take some very serious consideration of its situation and position as far as its economic security is concerned.”
Furthermore, Almendras likened the current global trade situation to a game of basketball where “we started off playing basketball and then somebody said the new rule is you can use your feet to kick the ball, and the new ball is being used. That’s how significant that change has been to the global realities.”
All three dialogue partners, Almendras noted, could become economic collateral damage, “meaning, you’re not part of the trade war/ trade hustle and you’re just on the side, you’re literally an audience, but you’re gonna get hit because you will be collateral damage.”
Gardiner highlighted the impact of economic coercion such as cutting off trade, and what it would do to the Philippines, Japan and Australia, and trade with China. He cited the point “that each of our countries has had an experience of the use of its trade for economic coercion purposes. Each of us has had sanctions imposed on us. So, we share that.”
More specifically, Gardiner pointed out the fact that while Australia is a big supplier of food, “Japan and the Philippines are dependent on food imports.” He warned that “if you have a major interruption to the global economy and the South China Sea, for example, Japan would suffer significantly in terms of most of its imports as it has to get its food from across the seas. I think the Philippines, what is it? Ninety percent of your protein or something comes from overseas.”
Thus, the purpose of the dialogue, Gardiner explained, “is that the three countries can actually not just learn from each other, but support each other. And we’re looking at complementarities. How might our three economies work together better to build our economic security? The question is on economic security in a really volatile world and with a changing US administration, how do the three countries see the changing circumstances? The biggest challenge is with the regional power of China, but how do we generally cooperate, build economic security, economic prosperity, and on the maritime security, the Philippines is the front line at the moment, and the question is, how do the three countries better cooperate, with strategy and policy, to support the Philippines, but also to play a role for stabilizing the South China Sea and upholding a rules-based order?”
Manila hosted the Track 2 dialogue to give Philippine government officials a chance to participate, with the Office of the National Security Adviser and representatives of the Departments of Foreign Affairs, Defense, Trade and Industry attending the two-day dialogue, along with participants and resource persons from Japan and Australia.
The inaugural trilateral dialogue was co-hosted by former Japan Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami, who has also joined the board of The Institute as part of the dialogue initiative, and retired Air Vice Marshal Peter Nicholson, a founding director of The Institute and former Air Commander Australia.
According to Gardiner, the diplomatic dialogues are usually discussed on three levels. Level one is minister to minister, government to government. Level two is ex officials, university re-searchers, think tanks, non-government organizations and business. Level 1.5, in the middle, involves the policymakers and decision makers in government, military, public service, who give advice to the Level one, to the ministerial, to their ministers, their political leaders, and who may draw on Track 2-type information.
Following the inaugural dialogue last week, Gardiner said, “We want to later this year have a Track 1.5, but we want to start with a Track 2 because we wanted to get some momentum on this initiative and following discussions with former Philippine Ambassador to Australia Hellen dela Vega, we agreed that we would launch our program in Manila with a Track 2.”
The Manila dialogue brought together individuals from Australia, Japan and the Philippines, with the focus on two areas of security – maritime security, with a lot of attention to the chal-lenges that the Philippines is facing in the South China Sea/ West Philippines Sea and economic security.
According to Gardiner, the dialogue partners’ job “is to draw on the information that’s been presented and present reports to our three governments to encourage them to hold our 1.5 and to help present..to prepare some of the agenda and direction for that 1.5, which we we are intending to have in the last quarter of this calendar year in Canberra. If we’re successful with this program, our intention is to then have another 1.5 next year, 2026 in Manila, and in 2027 in Tokyo.”
